Expected profit per order
Profitable$14.75
Contribution profit averaged across successful and refunded orders. Monthly Shopify and app costs are not included here.
Shopify Profit Calculator
Estimate Shopify profit after product costs, shipping, payment processing, Shopify third-party transaction fees, advertising, refunds, and monthly Shopify or app overhead. See expected profit per order, margin, break-even CPA, and break-even ROAS.
Currency is for display only and is not converted. United States presets use Shopify's published online standard card rates and third-party transaction percentages, last verified 2026-09-08. Actual rates can vary by market, card type, payment configuration, negotiated terms, and future Shopify changes. Monthly Shopify subscription is what you enter, not a universal plan price. Taxes are not calculated unless you add them as another cost.
Inputs
Formatting only. The formulas do not convert currencies.
Advanced return assumptions
Defaults treat product, fulfillment/packaging, payment fees, and Shopify transaction fees as fully lost on a refund. That is a conservative starting point, not a claim about every Shopify payout. Edit the rates if you recover inventory or fees.
Results
Expected profit margin
31.1%
Expected profit divided by expected retained revenue after refunds.
Fully-loaded profit per order
$14.75
Expected profit per order minus allocated monthly fixed costs. Requires more than zero orders per month.
Monthly net profit
$1,475.00
Monthly contribution minus Shopify subscription, apps, and other monthly fixed expenses.
Total Shopify + payment fees / order
$1.75
Payment processing plus Shopify third-party transaction fee on a charged order, before refund mixing.
Maximum break-even CPA
$24.75
Maximum advertising cost per order that keeps expected contribution profit at zero.
Break-even ROAS
1.92x
Expected retained revenue after refunds divided by break-even CPA. This is not a platform-reported ROAS figure.
Break-even selling price
$33.98
Selling price that sets expected contribution profit per order to zero, holding other inputs fixed.
Target selling price
Not applicable
Selling price that matches the optional target expected margin, if a valid price exists.
Estimated ROI on variable cash costs
47.6%
Expected profit divided by product, fulfillment, packaging, other variable, and advertising costs. Not a revenue ROI.
Expected retained revenue / order
$47.50
Monthly contribution
$1,475.00
Monthly fixed costs
$0.00
Allocated fixed cost / order
$0.00
Breakdown
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross order revenue | $50.00 |
| Expected refund impact (revenue refunded) | -$2.50 |
| Expected product cost | -$15.00 |
| Expected fulfillment / shipping | -$5.00 |
| Expected packaging | -$1.00 |
| Other variable costs | -$0.00 |
| Advertising | -$10.00 |
| Expected payment processing fees | -$1.75 |
| Expected Shopify transaction fees | -$0.00 |
| Expected profit | $14.75 |
Formula and methodology
Formula
Gross order revenue = selling price + shipping charged to the customer.
Payment processing fee = gross revenue × processing percentage + fixed processing fee. Shopify transaction fee = gross revenue × Shopify third-party transaction percentage.
Successful-order profit = gross revenue − product cost − fulfillment − packaging − other variable cost − advertising − payment fee − Shopify transaction fee.
Refunded-order profit assumes no retained customer revenue: 0 − (product cost × product-cost-lost rate) − ((fulfillment + packaging) × fulfillment-lost rate) − other variable cost − advertising − (payment fee × payment-fee-lost rate) − (Shopify transaction fee × Shopify-fee-lost rate).
Expected profit per order = (1 − refund rate) × successful-order profit + refund rate × refunded-order profit. Expected retained revenue = (1 − refund rate) × gross revenue.
Expected margin = expected profit ÷ expected retained revenue when retained revenue is greater than zero. Monthly contribution = expected profit × orders. Monthly fixed costs = Shopify subscription + apps + other monthly expenses. Monthly net profit = contribution − monthly fixed costs. Fully-loaded profit per order subtracts allocated monthly fixed costs only when orders are greater than zero.
Break-even CPA is expected profit plus advertising, floored at zero. Break-even ROAS is expected retained revenue divided by that CPA when the CPA is greater than zero. Break-even and target selling prices are solved from the same expected-profit formula.
Assumptions
This is a simplified Shopify model for a typical online card checkout. It does not reproduce every billing case Shopify can produce.
Shopify Payments on a transaction is modeled with a 0% Shopify third-party transaction fee. A third-party processor can incur both that processor's fees and Shopify's third-party transaction percentage.
Default refund assumptions treat payment and Shopify transaction fees as fully lost, and treat product and fulfillment/packaging as fully lost unless you change those percentages. Advertising and other variable costs are treated as already spent on refunded orders.
Monthly Shopify and app costs change monthly net profit and fully-loaded profit per order. They do not change expected contribution profit per order or break-even CPA.
What is included
Product cost, fulfillment/shipping, packaging, other variable costs, advertising, payment processing, Shopify third-party transaction fees, expected refunds with editable recovery rates, monthly Shopify subscription, apps, and other monthly overhead, plus an optional target margin.
What is excluded
Shopify Plus presets, taxes, Shopify Tax fees, currency conversion fees, international/cross-border surcharges, premium-card rates, POS rates, chargebacks, duties, B2B-specific rules, Shop Pay Installments-specific fees, and gift-card or store-credit edge cases. Add those only if you enter them as costs yourself.
What this calculator estimates
Use it to see whether a Shopify order still contributes after product cost, shipping, processing, Shopify transaction fees, ads, and the chance of a refund—and what remains after monthly Shopify and app bills. Results are planning estimates, not bookkeeping.
Shopify Payments vs a third-party provider
Shopify Payments charges a processing rate and, when it is the processor for the order, Shopify does not add its third-party transaction fee on that order. If you use another processor, you typically pay that processor's card fees and Shopify's extra transaction percentage. Presets fill United States online standard card rates for Shopify Payments and the published Shopify third-party percentages. They do not invent Stripe, PayPal, or other processor schedules.
Fee sources
United States Basic, Grow, and Advanced online standard card rates and third-party transaction percentages were checked on Shopify's official pricing page on 2026-09-08. Shopify's explanations of Shopify Payments fees and third-party transaction charges are on the Shopify Payments fee documentation and the Shopify third-party transaction fee documentation. Rates can change. Your admin rates, card mix, and contract can differ. Monthly subscription is always your input.
How to read break-even CPA, ROAS, and monthly costs
Break-even CPA is the most you can spend on ads per order and still expect to break even after refund risk, before monthly overhead. If the order is unprofitable before ads, that CPA is zero.
Break-even ROAS uses expected retained revenue after refunds, not necessarily the revenue definition inside an ads manager.
Shopify subscription and apps reduce monthly net profit. With more than zero orders they also reduce fully-loaded profit per order. They do not change contribution profit per order.
Worked example
These figures are an illustration, not recommended prices or fees. They use the same engine as the tool: selling price $50.00, shipping charged $0.00, product cost $15.00, fulfillment $5.00, packaging $1.00, payment fee 2.9% + $0.30, Shopify transaction fee 0%, ad CPA $10.00, 5% refunds with conservative 100% loss assumptions, 100 orders, $29.00 entered as a sample monthly Shopify subscription (not a universal Basic price), and $50.00 apps.
- Expected profit per order: $14.75
- Expected margin: 31.1%
- Monthly net profit: $1,396.00
- Break-even CPA: $24.75
Frequently asked questions
Does this include my exact Shopify invoice?
No. It estimates order economics from the rates you enter or from published US standard online-card presets. It does not import Shopify Admin, Plus contracts, or every add-on.
Why is the Shopify transaction percentage zero?
When Shopify Payments is modeled as the processor for the order, Shopify's extra third-party transaction fee is treated as 0%. Switch to a third-party provider preset to apply the published extra percentage for your plan.
How do refunds change the estimate?
Refunded orders are modeled with no retained customer revenue and with the cost-loss percentages you set. A 5% refund rate is not the same as subtracting 5% from an otherwise perfect order.
Are monthly Shopify fees in profit per order?
Not in expected profit per order. They appear in monthly net profit and, when you have more than zero orders, in fully-loaded profit per order.
Does this calculate tax?
No. It does not estimate sales tax, VAT, income tax, or Shopify Tax. Enter amounts you bear as another cost if you want them in the model.
Related tools
For a marketplace-agnostic version, use the E-commerce Profit Calculator. For advertising thresholds without entering a CPA, use the Break-Even ROAS Calculator. To solve a selling price from a target margin, use the Product Pricing Calculator. For Etsy listing, transaction, and Offsite Ads fee estimates, use the Etsy Fee Calculator. TikTok Shop US referral-fee estimates are in the TikTok Shop Fee Calculator. See the calculators page for the full list.