Expected profit per order
Profitable$14.75
Contribution profit averaged across successful and refunded orders. Monthly Shopify and app costs are not included here.
Shopify Profit Calculator
Estimate Shopify profit after product costs, shipping, payment processing, Shopify third-party transaction fees, advertising, refunds, and monthly Shopify or app overhead. See expected profit per order, margin, break-even CPA, and break-even ROAS.
Currency is for display only and is not converted. United States presets use Shopify's published online standard card rates and third-party transaction percentages, last verified 2026-09-08. Actual rates can vary by market, card type, payment configuration, negotiated terms, and future Shopify changes. Monthly Shopify subscription is what you enter, not a universal plan price. Taxes are not calculated unless you add them as another cost.
Inputs
Formatting only. The formulas do not convert currencies.
Advanced return assumptions
Defaults treat product, fulfillment/packaging, payment fees, and Shopify transaction fees as fully lost on a refund. That is a conservative starting point, not a claim about every Shopify payout. Edit the rates if you recover inventory or fees.
Results
Expected profit margin
31.1%
Expected profit divided by expected retained revenue after refunds.
Fully-loaded profit per order
$14.75
Expected profit per order minus allocated monthly fixed costs. Requires more than zero orders per month.
Monthly net profit
$1,475.00
Monthly contribution minus Shopify subscription, apps, and other monthly fixed expenses.
Total Shopify + payment fees / order
$1.75
Payment processing plus Shopify third-party transaction fee on a charged order, before refund mixing.
Maximum break-even CPA
$24.75
Maximum advertising cost per order that keeps expected contribution profit at zero.
Break-even ROAS
1.92x
Expected retained revenue after refunds divided by break-even CPA. This is not a platform-reported ROAS figure.
Break-even selling price
$33.98
Selling price that sets expected contribution profit per order to zero, holding other inputs fixed.
Target selling price
Not applicable
Selling price that matches the optional target expected margin, if a valid price exists.
Estimated ROI on variable cash costs
47.6%
Expected profit divided by product, fulfillment, packaging, other variable, and advertising costs. Not a revenue ROI.
Expected retained revenue / order
$47.50
Monthly contribution
$1,475.00
Monthly fixed costs
$0.00
Allocated fixed cost / order
$0.00
Breakdown
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross order revenue | $50.00 |
| Expected refund impact (revenue refunded) | -$2.50 |
| Expected product cost | -$15.00 |
| Expected fulfillment / shipping | -$5.00 |
| Expected packaging | -$1.00 |
| Other variable costs | -$0.00 |
| Advertising | -$10.00 |
| Expected payment processing fees | -$1.75 |
| Expected Shopify transaction fees | -$0.00 |
| Expected profit | $14.75 |
Formula and methodology
Formula
Gross order revenue = selling price + shipping charged to the customer.
Payment processing fee = gross revenue × processing percentage + fixed processing fee. Shopify transaction fee = gross revenue × Shopify third-party transaction percentage.
Successful-order profit = gross revenue − product cost − fulfillment − packaging − other variable cost − advertising − payment fee − Shopify transaction fee.
Refunded-order profit assumes no retained customer revenue: 0 − (product cost × product-cost-lost rate) − ((fulfillment + packaging) × fulfillment-lost rate) − other variable cost − advertising − (payment fee × payment-fee-lost rate) − (Shopify transaction fee × Shopify-fee-lost rate).
Expected profit per order = (1 − refund rate) × successful-order profit + refund rate × refunded-order profit. Expected retained revenue = (1 − refund rate) × gross revenue.
Expected margin = expected profit ÷ expected retained revenue when retained revenue is greater than zero. Monthly contribution = expected profit × orders. Monthly fixed costs = Shopify subscription + apps + other monthly expenses. Monthly net profit = contribution − monthly fixed costs. Fully-loaded profit per order subtracts allocated monthly fixed costs only when orders are greater than zero.
Break-even CPA is expected profit plus advertising, floored at zero. Break-even ROAS is expected retained revenue divided by that CPA when the CPA is greater than zero. Break-even and target selling prices are solved from the same expected-profit formula.
Assumptions
This is a simplified Shopify model for a typical online card checkout. It does not reproduce every billing case Shopify can produce.
Shopify Payments on a transaction is modeled with a 0% Shopify third-party transaction fee. A third-party processor can incur both that processor's fees and Shopify's third-party transaction percentage.
Default refund assumptions treat payment and Shopify transaction fees as fully lost, and treat product and fulfillment/packaging as fully lost unless you change those percentages. Advertising and other variable costs are treated as already spent on refunded orders.
Monthly Shopify and app costs change monthly net profit and fully-loaded profit per order. They do not change expected contribution profit per order or break-even CPA.
What is included
Product cost, fulfillment/shipping, packaging, other variable costs, advertising, payment processing, Shopify third-party transaction fees, expected refunds with editable recovery rates, monthly Shopify subscription, apps, and other monthly overhead, plus an optional target margin.
What is excluded
Shopify Plus presets, taxes, Shopify Tax fees, currency conversion fees, international/cross-border surcharges, premium-card rates, POS rates, chargebacks, duties, B2B-specific rules, Shop Pay Installments-specific fees, and gift-card or store-credit edge cases. Add those only if you enter them as costs yourself.
What this calculator estimates
It estimates expected profit per Shopify order after product cost, shipping, payment processing, Shopify's third-party transaction fee when it applies, ads, and refunds. It also shows expected margin, monthly net after Shopify subscription and apps, break-even CPA, break-even ROAS, and—when you enter a target margin—the selling price that hits it. Results are planning estimates, not a Shopify payout or bookkeeping file. For how the fee layers turn into a profit decision, read Shopify Fees Explained. To compare this kind of order with the same hypothetical product on other selling-channel fee structures, see the selling channel cost comparison. It does not rank a winning channel.
Shopify fees vs business costs
Payment processing is the card rate and fixed fee on collected revenue. Shopify's third-party transaction percentage is a separate platform charge and is modeled as 0% when Shopify Payments is the processor for the order. Monthly Shopify subscription, apps, and other overhead are store bills, not a per-checkout percentage. Product cost, fulfillment, packaging, other variable cost, and ads are your operating costs. The estimate only includes amounts you enter or fill from the sourced US presets.
Shopify Payments vs a third-party provider
Shopify Payments still charges processing. When it is the modeled processor, Shopify's extra third-party transaction fee is 0% on that order. A third-party provider can mean both that processor's fees and Shopify's published transaction percentage for the plan. Presets fill United States online standard card rates for Shopify Payments and the published Shopify third-party percentages, last checked 2026-09-08. They do not invent Stripe, PayPal, or other processor schedules. Actual admin rates can differ by card mix, market, and contract.
Payout vs profit
The amount left after Shopify and payment fees is not necessarily business profit. Product cost, fulfillment, packaging, ads, refunds, apps, and other overhead still have to come out. This tool's expected profit per order is contribution after those variable items and refund risk. Monthly net profit then subtracts the Shopify subscription, apps, and other monthly costs you entered.
Fee sources
United States Basic, Grow, and Advanced online standard card rates and third-party transaction percentages were checked on Shopify's official pricing page on 2026-09-08. Shopify's explanations of Shopify Payments fees and third-party transaction charges are on the Shopify Payments fee documentation and the Shopify third-party transaction fee documentation. Rates can change. Your admin rates, card mix, and contract can differ. Monthly subscription is always your input.
How to read break-even CPA, ROAS, and monthly costs
Break-even CPA is the most you can spend on ads per order and still expect to break even after refund risk, before monthly overhead. If the order is unprofitable before ads, that CPA is zero.
Break-even ROAS uses expected retained revenue after refunds, not necessarily the revenue definition inside an ads manager.
Shopify subscription and apps reduce monthly net profit. With more than zero orders they also reduce fully-loaded profit per order. They do not change contribution profit per order or break-even CPA.
Worked example
These figures are an illustration, not recommended prices or fees. They use the same engine as the tool: selling price $50.00, shipping charged $0.00, product cost $15.00, fulfillment $5.00, packaging $1.00, Shopify Payments at 2.9% + $0.30, Shopify transaction fee 0.0%, ad CPA $10.00, 5.0% refunds with conservative 100% loss assumptions, 100 orders, $29.00 entered as a sample monthly Shopify subscription (not a universal Basic price), and $50.00 apps.
- Order revenue: $50.00
- Payment processing on that ticket: $1.75; Shopify third-party transaction fee: $0.00
- Expected operating costs after refund risk (product, fulfillment, packaging, ads): $31.00
- Expected profit per order: $14.75
- Expected margin on retained revenue: 31.1%
- Break-even CPA: $24.75; break-even ROAS: 1.92x
- Monthly net profit: $1,396.00
Frequently asked questions
Does this include my exact Shopify invoice?
No. It estimates order economics from the rates you enter or from published US standard online-card presets. It does not import Shopify Admin, Plus contracts, or every add-on.
Why is the Shopify transaction percentage zero?
When Shopify Payments is modeled as the processor for the order, Shopify's extra third-party transaction fee is treated as 0%. Switch to a third-party provider preset to apply the published extra percentage for your plan.
What happens if I use a third-party payment provider?
Enter that provider's processing rates yourself. The calculator then also applies Shopify's sourced third-party transaction percentage for the selected United States plan. It does not invent Stripe, PayPal, or other processor schedules.
How do refunds change the estimate?
Refunded orders are modeled with no retained customer revenue and with the cost-loss percentages you set. A 5% refund rate is not the same as subtracting 5% from an otherwise perfect order.
Are monthly Shopify fees in profit per order?
Not in expected profit per order. They appear in monthly net profit and, when you have more than zero orders, in fully-loaded profit per order.
Does this calculate tax?
No. It does not estimate sales tax, VAT, income tax, or Shopify Tax. Enter amounts you bear as another cost if you want them in the model.
Related tools
Read Shopify Fees Explained for the difference between processor fees, Shopify's third-party transaction fee, and store-level bills. For the same order math without Shopify presets, use the E-commerce Profit Calculator.