Expected profit per order
Profitable$12.75
Average profit across successful and refunded orders.
E-commerce Profit Calculator
Calculate your real e-commerce profit after product costs, shipping, payment fees, platform fees, advertising, returns, and other expenses. See profit per order, margin, break-even CPA, and break-even ROAS.
Currency is for display only. Platform fee is a percentage you enter; this tool does not include marketplace-specific fee tables. Taxes are not calculated unless you add them as another cost.
Inputs
Formatting only. The formulas do not convert currencies.
Advanced return assumptions
These are conservative starting points, not universal rules. Edit them to match how your business actually recovers costs after a refund.
100% assumes you cannot recover the product at cost. Use a lower rate if you restock it.
100% assumes outbound shipping and packaging are already spent.
100% assumes processors keep fees after a refund. Lower this if your processor returns fees.
Results
Profit margin
26.8%
Expected profit divided by expected revenue after refunds.
Break-even CPA
$24.75
Maximum advertising cost per order that keeps expected profit at zero.
Break-even ROAS
1.92x
Expected revenue after refunds divided by break-even CPA. This is not a platform-reported ROAS figure.
Expected revenue per order
$47.50
Total expected variable cost per order
$34.75
Monthly net profit
$1,275.00
Expected profit per order times orders, minus monthly fixed expenses.
Break-even selling price
$36.16
Selling price that sets expected profit per order to zero, holding other inputs fixed.
Estimated ROI on variable cash costs
38.6%
Expected profit divided by product, fulfillment, packaging, ads, and other variable costs. Not a revenue ROI.
Breakdown
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross order revenue | $50.00 |
| Expected refund impact (revenue refunded) | -$2.50 |
| Expected product cost | -$15.00 |
| Expected shipping / fulfillment | -$5.00 |
| Expected packaging | -$1.00 |
| Expected payment fees | -$1.75 |
| Expected platform fees | -$0.00 |
| Advertising | -$12.00 |
| Other variable costs | -$0.00 |
| Expected profit | $12.75 |
Formula and methodology
Formula
Gross order revenue = selling price + shipping charged to the customer.
Payment fee = gross revenue × payment percentage + fixed payment fee. Platform fee = gross revenue × platform percentage.
Successful-order profit = gross revenue − product cost − fulfillment shipping − packaging − payment fee − platform fee − advertising − other variable cost.
Refunded-order profit = 0 − (product cost × product-cost-lost rate) − ((fulfillment shipping + packaging) × shipping-lost rate) − ((payment fee + platform fee) × fee-lost rate) − advertising − other variable cost.
Expected profit per order = (1 − refund rate) × successful-order profit + refund rate × refunded-order profit.
Profit margin = expected profit per order ÷ expected revenue, where expected revenue = (1 − refund rate) × gross revenue. If expected revenue is 0, margin is not applicable.
Monthly contribution = expected profit per order × orders per month. Monthly net profit = monthly contribution − monthly fixed expenses. Both monthly figures are omitted if orders per month is blank.
Break-even CPA = max(0, expected pre-ad contribution). Pre-ad contribution uses the same successful/refunded mix but does not subtract advertising. Break-even ROAS = expected revenue ÷ break-even CPA when that CPA is greater than zero.
Break-even selling price is the selling price that sets expected profit per order to zero, holding shipping charged and all other inputs fixed. It is omitted when no finite non-negative price exists.
Assumptions
Expected profit per order is an average across successful and refunded orders. A 5% refund rate does not mean you subtract 5% of revenue from an otherwise successful order and leave it at that; refunded orders have their own cost recovery assumptions.
Payment and platform percentage fees are applied to selling price plus shipping charged. Advertising and other variable costs are treated as already spent on refunded orders.
Monthly fixed expenses change monthly net profit only. They are not allocated into profit per order or break-even CPA.
Default return assumptions are conservative: 100% of product cost, fulfillment/shipping/packaging, and payment/platform fees are treated as lost on a refunded order. Change them if your operation recovers inventory or fees.
What is included
Product cost, inbound/outbound fulfillment shipping, packaging, payment fees, an optional platform percentage you enter, advertising CPA, other variable costs, expected refunds, and optional monthly fixed expenses.
What is excluded
Income taxes, sales tax collection, marketplace-specific fee schedules, currency conversion, and inventory financing. Add taxes only if you enter them as another cost yourself.
What this calculator estimates
Enter a selling price and the costs that move with an order. The tool estimates expected profit per order, expected profit margin, monthly net profit when you enter orders and fixed expenses, break-even CPA, break-even ROAS, and the selling price that would break even under those same assumptions. It is marketplace-agnostic: you type the platform percentage you actually pay.
For what belongs in the calculation, how to read margin, and common omissions, read How to Calculate E-commerce Profit. To see how refund rate, ad cost, and product cost move these outputs under one modeled scenario, use the e-commerce profit sensitivity analysis. Those rows are engine scenarios, not observed seller results.
How to read the results
Expected profit per order is contribution after variable costs, ads, and refund risk. It is not revenue, and it does not subtract monthly rent or salaries. Those bills change monthly net profit only, and only when you enter orders per month.
Break-even CPA is the most you can spend on ads per order and still expect that contribution to reach zero. If it is already zero before ads, advertising is not the only problem. Break-even ROAS divides expected revenue after refunds by that CPA. It uses retained revenue, which may differ from an ads-manager conversion value. Break-even selling price is the price that sets expected profit per order to zero with the other inputs held fixed.
Profit margin is expected profit divided by expected retained revenue. A refunded order keeps no customer payment and can still lose product, shipping, packaging, and fees, depending on the recovery rates you set. Advertising and other variable costs are treated as already spent on those orders.
Worked example
These figures are an illustration, not recommended prices or fees. They come from the same engine as the tool: selling price $50.00, shipping charged $0.00, product cost $15.00, fulfillment shipping $5.00, packaging $1.00, payment fee 2.9% + $0.30, platform fee 0%, ad CPA $12.00, and a 5% return rate with conservative 100% cost-loss assumptions. The profit guide walks through why the kept-order result and the refunded-order result average to a different profit per order.
- Gross order revenue: $50.00
- Expected revenue after refunds: $47.50
- Expected profit per order: $12.75
- Profit margin: 26.8%
- Monthly net profit at 100 orders and no fixed expenses: $1,275.00
- Break-even CPA: $24.75
- Break-even ROAS: 1.92x
- Break-even selling price: $36.16
Frequently asked questions
What is profit per order?
Expected profit per order is the average of a kept order and a refunded order at your refund rate. It already includes variable costs and ads. It does not subtract monthly fixed expenses.
What costs should I include?
Include every cost that changes with an order: product cost, fulfillment, packaging, payment fees, any platform percentage you pay, ads, and other variable costs. Put rent and salaries in monthly fixed expenses.
Does this calculator include taxes?
No. It does not estimate sales tax, VAT, or income tax. Add an amount you bear as another variable cost or as part of monthly fixed expenses if you want it in the model.
Why can profit per order be positive while monthly net is low?
Monthly net subtracts the fixed expenses you enter. Low volume or high overhead can leave little left even when expected profit per order is still positive. Leave orders blank to hide the monthly line.
Related tools
Read How to Calculate E-commerce Profit for the concepts behind these outputs. If you already know the price and want the advertising ceiling instead of profit at a known CPA, use the Break-Even ROAS Calculator. To solve a selling price from a target margin, use the Product Pricing Calculator.